Asymmetric bets: ideas that have low downside, maximum upside.
Example of a bad asymmetric bet: my first business. Renting old Toyota Priuses long term to Uber and Lyft drivers. Upside: a maximum amount of gross income of $1200 a month per car. Buy a car, and $1200 is its maximum earning potential. Downside: lawsuits, meth heads stealing your cars, calls at 2 in the morning from your driver saying they left the car on the side of the 101 in Woodland Hills, but they have the keys with them in Orange County (all of these things happened). This is a non asymmetric bet: a business that has low upside, high downside.
A good asymmetric bet: I'm assuming that a lot of people may be displaced from their jobs by AI. So I built a series of websites for them, called ExitX, for them to reach out to me if they're displaced or jaded. Downside: domain name costs, 12 hours of time building the sites with AI, server costs. Maybe $100. Upside: a potential community of inspired, motivated people in transitionary phases, ready to build something huge and work together. Maybe money. I don't know. But indefinite upside.
That's what I look for: small bets that have the ability to produce upside that's as strong as my imagination. The only downside of this thinking thus far: I own way too many shitty domain names.
Too much of life is spent chasing non asymmetric wins. This is likely why we're all so busy. True asymmetry comes around rarely. The key is spotting the opportunity, then pouncing.